How severe is the supply impact?

Freeport sees 2026 copper/gold output ~35% below prior forecast, with recovery to pre-incident levels only by 2027.

Why does this matter for AI and robotics?

Copper is foundational for data-center power distribution and motors/wiring in robots and EVs; scarcity elevates capex and lead times.

What can organizations do now?

Secure allocations, consider material substitutions where standards allow, scale recycling, and improve power efficiency to reduce copper intensity.

Grasberg Mine Disaster: Implications for Global Copper Supply, AI & Robotics

Overview

Freeport-McMoRan confirmed a major accident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia—the world’s second-largest copper deposit. Production is expected to recover only by 2027. For 2026, copper and gold output are projected to be about 35% below prior guidance. Grasberg accounts for roughly 50% of Freeport’s proven reserves and around 70% of projected production through 2029, magnifying the global impact.

Global Copper Supply Shock

Persistent deficit: A multi-year production gap emerges just as electrification and AI infrastructure demand accelerates.
Price volatility: Spot copper prices may rise and remain elevated; downstream sectors face higher bill of materials.
Substitution & recycling: Expect faster work on aluminum wiring, conductive composites, and higher copper scrap recovery.

Implications for AI, Data Centers & Robotics

Data centers & networks: Copper is core to power distribution, switchgear, busbars, and high-amp cabling; scarcity raises capex and lead times.
Robotics & EV platforms: Motors, wiring harnesses, and thermal systems face cost pressure; TCO models may shift rollout timelines.
Supply-chain strategy: Expect more U.S./ally efforts in domestic mining, refining, and urban mining to harden critical minerals supply.

Timeline & Recovery

Milestone	Detail
2025–2026	Output materially constrained; ~35% below previous 2026 plan
2027	Earliest target to regain pre-incident production levels
2029	Grasberg remains central to Freeport’s production mix

What Builders & Buyers Can Do Now

Forward contracts: Lock copper allocations and evaluate hedging policies.
Design-to-material: Revisit specs for aluminum alternatives where safe and compliant; adopt modular busway.
Recycling & reclamation: Increase scrap capture in data-center retrofits and e-waste programs.
Efficiency: Invest in higher-efficiency power topologies to reduce copper intensity per MW.

Sources

BusinessWire — Freeport Provides Update on PT Freeport Indonesia Operations (Sep 23, 2025)

Figures based on company statements as of publication; recovery timelines and production guidance may change.