Overview

The latest Reagan National Defense Survey, released by the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute, shows record levels of concern about China and unusually strong support for helping Taiwan if it is attacked. Large majorities say they are worried about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, see China as the top threat to the United States and back an active American role in leading alliances and defending democracy.

For Taiwan, the numbers are striking. The survey and related polling cited by Taiwan and U.S. media indicate that around three quarters of Americans believe a war over Taiwan would affect U.S. security and prosperity, and roughly seven in ten support the United States taking military action if China were to invade or blockade the island. Other questions show that majorities would support recognizing Taiwan as an independent country if China launches an attack and imposing tough economic sanctions on Beijing.

What the Reagan Survey Says and Who Explains It

The Reagan Institute describes its annual survey as a way to understand how Americans view defense, foreign policy and national security. In recent editions, survey leaders have highlighted several themes. First, China has moved to the top of the threat list, displacing Russia and terrorism. Second, most Americans now see Taiwan as an ally and want to deter war in the Taiwan Strait rather than accept Chinese domination.

Analysts who brief the survey, along with outside experts at think tanks, stress that support for Taiwan is bipartisan. Democrats, Republicans and independents all show majority concern about a Chinese invasion and majority support for strong measures such as sanctions, arms sales and forward deployments. The survey authors argue that this reflects a wider belief that U.S. global leadership and alliance networks are still necessary for peace through strength rather than a desire to retreat from the world.

U.S. Commitments and How Washington Plans to Defend Taiwan

Officials and lawmakers who point to the Reagan survey say it strengthens the case for a more visible and credible strategy to defend Taiwan. The United States maintains its long standing One China policy and strategic ambiguity on whether it would send troops, but recent presidents and senior officials have repeatedly stated that Washington will help Taiwan defend itself and oppose any unilateral change to the status quo by force.

In practical terms, this means accelerating arms deliveries that support an asymmetric defense concept, including mobile anti ship missiles, integrated air and missile defense, drones, cyber defense and resilient command networks. It also means more frequent joint training, closer coordination with Japan and other allies along the First Island Chain, and plans to keep sea lanes and air routes open if China attempts a blockade. Members of Congress cite the survey data when arguing for larger Indo Pacific defense budgets and new legislation to harden U.S. bases and logistics in the region.

U.S. Global Leadership Beyond Taiwan

The Reagan National Defense Survey also asks whether the United States should lead in world affairs or step back. Despite fatigue after long wars, majorities still say the country should play an active global role, maintain alliances and keep a strong military presence overseas. Support is especially high for standing with democratic partners in Europe and the Indo Pacific, defending treaty allies and deterring aggression from authoritarian powers.

For advocates of a robust American foreign policy, the findings counter claims that the public has turned isolationist. They argue that most citizens want a foreign policy that is tough on rivals such as China and Russia, supportive of friends like Taiwan and Ukraine, and focused on protecting economic security at home. The survey results are often used in speeches and testimony to show that there is political space to maintain U.S. commitments and to invest in new capabilities such as undersea warfare, long range missiles, cyber defense and space systems.

Benefits for the U.S. Economy and Defense Industrial Base

Stronger commitments to defend Taiwan and to sustain U.S. leadership have direct economic and industrial implications. On one level, they reinforce long term demand for ships, aircraft, missiles and munitions built in the United States, which supports jobs across the defense supply chain. Congress has already moved to expand production lines for ammunition, air defense interceptors and naval platforms, citing the need to deter China and respond to crises while also replenishing stockpiles.

On another level, closer security ties with Taiwan and other Indo Pacific partners encourage deeper cooperation in high tech sectors such as semiconductors, telecommunications, cyber security and artificial intelligence. American companies see Taiwan as a critical partner for secure chip manufacturing, while U.S. policy makers see friend shoring production and protecting advanced technology from forced transfer to China as part of national security. The survey’s message that voters support defending Taiwan and confronting China’s economic coercion makes it easier to sustain export controls, investment screening and subsidies for strategic industries at home.

How the Numbers Shape Strategy Toward China

Beijing routinely denounces U.S. polls and policy documents that highlight Taiwan, accusing Washington of using public opinion as a pretext to contain China. Chinese diplomats insist that Taiwan is a domestic matter and warn that outside interference will lead to countermeasures. At the same time, they watch U.S. debates closely. Rising American concern about China and explicit support for Taiwan feed into Beijing’s threat perceptions and its own calculations about military timelines and escalation risks.

For U.S. leaders, the challenge is to translate survey support into a sustainable strategy that deters war rather than invites it. That means combining credible military power and economic resilience with clear communication about red lines, crisis hotlines and areas where cooperation with China is still possible. The Reagan National Defense Survey does not write policy, but it signals that the American public is prepared to back a tougher line against aggression while still expecting their leaders to avoid a catastrophic conflict.

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